La Oveja Negra — Cash Flow Tool
Black Sheep Herd calculator. Edit any input. Outputs update live.
Year 1
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Year 3 ★
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Year 5
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Outcomes
Year 1 DSCR
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cash —
Year 3 DSCR ★
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cash —
Year 5 DSCR
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cash —
Total partner capital available
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Total cash required (Phase 1)
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Capital surplus / gap
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Edit inputs below to see how the deal responds. Target: Y3 DSCR ≥ 1.20 (BanRural minimum).
Partner investments
Joe + Ana net contribution
From house sale, after personal debt cleanup
$
Camila cash equity
Floor $20K | Recommended $35K (full tiny house) | Premium $50K
$
Ken + Katie cash equity
Floor $35K | Hybrid $50K (5% equity + tiny house + pool)
$
Marcus balance (already deposited)
Counts AGAINST targets above, not on top
$
Other / new contributions
Founding members, new partners, etc. NOT yet in Marcus.
$
Joe + Ana buildout-period contribution
Months Joe + Ana stay in US (rent-free with K+K)
Aug 2026 → move-to-Guate. Each extra month adds capital.
Joe + Ana monthly Marcus contribution
Combined. While living rent-free with K+K and earning ~$140K combined.
$
Loan structure
Loan amount
$300K reduces debt service ~25%, requires +$100K partner cash
$
Interest rate (annual)
BanRural estimate — confirm with term sheet
%
Term (years)
30 if Ana qualifies as Guatemalan citizen; 15-20 for foreigners
Interest-only period (years)
If BanRural allows it. 1-3 years typical for hospitality.
Construction sequencing
Casitas operating Year 1
Plus restored cabin = total Year 1 rentable units
Casitas added in Year 2
Built from operating cashflow
Cost per casita (build)
Joey's family-labor estimate: $20-25K. Recommended: $22.5K
$
Furnishings per casita
Maya furniture, linens, appliances, decor
$
Revenue assumptions
ADR Year 1 (USD/night)
$130 honest middle. Joey wants $175. Earth Lodge $90 (comp).
$
ADR annual growth rate
~6% as reviews build. Y5 will be Y1 × 1.26.
%
Year 1 occupancy
30% honest middle. 15-25% if no marketing. 40% optimistic.
%
Occupancy ramp per year (+pp)
+8 percentage points/yr. Cap at max below.
pp
Maximum steady-state occupancy
Antigua market median 42%. Top-decile 65-75%.
%
Working capital + streams
Working capital reserve target
Covers Y1-2 ramp losses. $35K floor / $60K recommended / $100K conservative.
$
Include 9 Phase 1 revenue streams in outcomes?
Cooking classes, temazcal, massage, day workshops, F&B add-ons, etc.
Yes
No
Reset to honest defaults